Tropical Depression 16 Forms in the Western Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression 16 has formed over the western Caribbean Sea with max winds of 35 mph.

The 16th tropical depression of the season has formed around 25 miles south/southwest of San Andres Island in the western Caribbean Sea.

The depression is moving to the northwest around 7 mph… and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track… the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday… then move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight… and would be named Nate if it does so.

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In the short term of its track… rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across portions of Nicaragua… with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama… 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected… with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible. Across Honduras… rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches… with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Also… Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday and spread into Honduras late Thursday.

The tropical depression is then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico where strengthening is forecast… and it could become a hurricane before making landfall across the northwest Gulf coast… possibly on the panhandle of Florida. It is then expected to quickly weaken as it moves across Georgia.

Savannah is in the cone of possible track. IF we feel any impacts… they would come Sunday into Monday… and could include minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes. Localized flooding rainfall and tropical storm force winds (40 mph+) are also possible.

Stay tuned to WSAV… and our social media platforms for further updates.


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