5pm Saturday Update on Post-Tropical Hermine

Here is the latest and forecast track on post tropical cyclone Hermine.

Hermine Expected To Remain A Powerful Cyclone Off

The Mid-Atlantic Coast For The Next Few Days… Dangerous Storm

Surge Expected Along The Coast From Virginia To New Jersey.


QUICK Summary Of 500 Pm EDT Information


Location… 36.2n 73.3w

About 175 Miles ESE Of Norfolk Virginia

About 175 Miles SE Of Ocean City Maryland

Maximum Sustained Winds… 70 Mph

Present Movement… ENE Or 75 Degrees At 12 Mph

Minimum Central Pressure… 997 Mb… 29.44 Inches


A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For…

* Ocracoke Inlet To West Of Watch Hill

* Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point Southward

* Delaware Bay


A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For…

* Watch Hill To Sagamore Beach

* Block Island

* Martha’s Vineyard

* Nantucket


At 500 Pm Edt… The Center Of Post-Tropical Cyclone

Hermine Was Located Near Latitude 36.2 North, Longitude 73.3 West.

Hermine Is Moving Toward The East-Northeast Near 12 Mph.

A Turn Toward The Northeast And A Decrease In Forward Speed Is

Expected By Sunday, Followed By A Slow Northward To Northwestward

Motion Through Monday.  On The Forecast Track, The Center Of Hermine

Will Meander Slowly Offshore Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast For The Next

Copule Of Days.


Data From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate

That Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph With Higher

Gusts.  Some Strengthening Is Expected, And Hermine Is Expected To

Intensify To Hurricane Force On Sunday.


Hermine Has A Large Wind Field.  Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend

Outward Up To 205 Miles From The Center.  Noaa Buoy 44014,

Located About 75 Miles East Of Virginia Beach, Recently

Reported A Sustained Wind Of 54 Mph And A Gust Of 67 Mph.

The Norfolk International Airport Recently Reported A

Wind Gust Of 43 Mph (69 Km/H).


The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Based On Data From The Aircraft

Is 997 Mb (29.44 Inches).


Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue To Spread Northward

Within The Warning Area Along The Atlantic Coast Through Monday,

And There May Be Multiple Occurrences Of Tropical Storm Conditions

Along Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast In The Warning Area During

The Next Couple Of Days. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In

The Watch Area By Monday.


The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will

Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising

Waters Moving Inland From The Shoreline.  Along The Immediate

Coastline, The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous

Waves.  There Is A Danger Of Life-Threatening Inundation Through

Tonight In The Hampton Roads Area, And In The Next 36 Hours From

Chincoteague, Virginia, To Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Persons Within

These Areas Should Take All Necessary Actions To Protect Life And

Property From Rising Water.  Promptly Follow All Instructions,

Including Evacuation Orders, From Local Officials.  There Is Also

The Possibility Of Life-Threatening Inundation During The Next 48

Hours At Many Coastal Locations Between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, And

Bridgeport, Connecticut.


The Water Could Reach The Following Heights Above Ground If The

Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide…


North Carolina Sounds… 1 To 3 Feet

Hampton Roads Area… 2 To 4 Feet

Chincoteague, Va To Sandy Hook, Nj… 3 To 5 Feet

Sandy Hook, Nj To Bridgeport, Ct… 2 To 4 Feet


Hermine Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall

Accumulations Of 4 To 7 Inches Over Far Southeastern Virginia And

The Atlantic Coastal Portion Of Maryland Through Monday Morning.

Hermine Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To

4 Inches Over Southern Delaware, Southern And Eastern New Jersey,

And Long Island Through Monday Morning.


Large Waves Generated By Hermine Will Affect The U.S. East

Coast From The Mid-Atlantic States And Expand Northward Along The

Coast Of Southern New England Through Monday.  These Waves Are

Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions,

And Significant Beach Erosion.


Next Complete Advisory At 1100 Pm EDT.

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