Tracking a Tropical Disturbance East of the Lesser Antilles for Development

Forecast model data for the tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles was investigated by the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon and found to be poorly organized and lacked a well defined low level center of circulation. The storm is moving west-northwest at 15-20 mph. You can see below the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in the satellite imagery taken at 4:45pm.

Over the next couple of days… the atmosphere around the storm is only marginally conducive for development while it moves across the northern Leeward Islands and Lesser Antelles.

However… conditions should become more conducive later this week as the storm moves across the southeastern and central Bahamas. Another hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow… if necessary.

Along the islands of the northeast Caribbean Sea and the central and southeast Bahamas… they will experience heavy rainfall… gusty winds and possible flash flooding and mudslides.

Over the next 48 hours… there is a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone according to the National Hurricane Center. Over the next 5 days… there is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone forming.

There is considerable uncertainty on just how strong the storm might get (or even if it will develop into a storm at all) or where it goes beyond the southeast / central Bahamas. Continue to monitor WSAV and Storm Team 3 for the latest and you can find much more on the tropics at http://www.wsav.com/wsav-hurricane-central/

 

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