2am Update on Tropical Storm Karen

2am Update on Tropical Storm Karen (Image 1)

Karen Is Continuing North-Northwestward Over The

Central Gulf Of Mexico.



Summary Of 200 AM EDT Information


Location… 24.5n 89.5w

About 320 Miles South Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River

Maximum Sustained Winds… 65 Mph

Present Movement…NNW Or 335 Degrees At 10 Mph

Minimum Central Pressure… 999 Mb… 29.50 Inches



A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For…

* Grand Isle Louisiana To West Of Destin Florida


A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For…

* Grand Isle Louisiana To The Mouth Of The Pearl River


A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For…

* West Of Grand Isle To East Of Morgan City Louisiana

* Metropolitan New Orleans

* Lake Maurepas

* Lake Pontchartrain

* Destin To Indian Pass Florida



 At 200 AM EDT… The Center Of Tropical Storm Karen Was

Located Near Latitude 24.5 North… Longitude 89.5 West. Karen Is

Moving Toward The North-Northwest Near 10 Mph. A Turn

Toward The North With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected Later

Today With A Gradual Turn To The Northeast On Saturday. On The

Forecast Track… The Center Of Karen Is Expected To Be Near The

Coast Within The Tropical Storm Warning Area On Saturday.


Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 65 Mph With Higher

Gusts. Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible During The Next Day Or

Two… And Karen Could Be Near Hurricane Strength Late Today And

Early Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is

Currently Enroute To Investigate Karen.


Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles

Primarily To The North And East Of The Center.


The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb… 29.50 Inches.



Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within Portions Of The

Hurricane Watch Area On Saturday. Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected Within Portions Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area By

Tonight Or Saturday Morning.


The Combination Of Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause

Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters.

The Water Could Reach The Following Heights Above Ground If The

Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide…


West Of The Mississippi River To Terrebonne Bay… 1 To 3 Ft

Mouth Of The Mississippi River To Mobile Bay… 3 To 5 Ft

East Of Mobile Bay To West Of Apalachee Bay… 1 To 3 Ft

Apalachee Bay… 2 To 4 Ft

South Of Apalachee Bay To Tampa Bay… 1 To 2 Ft


The Highest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To

The East Of Where Landfall Occurs… Where The Surge Will Be

Accompanied By Dangerous Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On

The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle… And Can Vary

Greatly Over Short Distances.


Karen Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8

Inches Over Portions Of The Central And Eastern Gulf Coast

Through Sunday Night… Mainly Near And To The Right Of The Path Of

The Center. Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 12 Inches Are Possible.

Additional Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Are Possible Over

Portions Of Western Cuba And The Northern Yucatan Peninsula.



Next Complete Advisory…500 AM EDT.

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